Monday, January 16, 2012

2012: Great forecast for Alcatel Lucent (ALU), Cisco (CSCO) , Juniper Networks (JNPR), Siemens (SI) , Ericsson ( ERIC)

Lightwave magazine published today,  Optical industry trends for 2012.
Explosive Bandwidth Growth will continue in 2012 at least on 2011 rate, as both wired and wireless networks were  stretched  as consumers continued to adopt intensive bandwidth consuming  technologies at fast pace.
The Lightwave article is in a good agreement with our article from October 25, 2011 regarding Broadband Equipment Market Grow by 40% till 2015.
                 Optical supply chain for telecommunications becomes more on-demand supply chain model, with widespread adoption of vendor managed inventory (VMI) methods or other demand-pull systems.The main challenge for carriers and network equipment manufacturers (NEMs) has not been the recent growth in bandwidth demand itself, but the fact that the growth has come in fits and spurts – making forecasting unpredictable at best. As a result, many in the optics industry have begun to adopt an on-demand supply chain model, with widespread adoption of vendor managed inventory (VMI) methods or other demand-pull systems. 
                  Carriers become aware of self-aware networks
Many consumers are not willing to pay more for services, even though they use more bandwidth every year. As a result, carriers must operate their networks more efficiently. One of the best ways to accomplish this goal is to more proactively manage bandwidth provisioning in the optical domain. This is why “self-aware” networks gained the attention of most operators in 2011 and why they represent a major evolution in transport network design. In these new networks, optical wavelength connections will be dynamically created, re-routed, or removed according to local network bandwidth needs. Self-aware capabilities will drastically reduce overall network operating costs for the carrier.While self-aware networks were still in development in 2011, first deployments could start in late 2012 or early 2013. Operators now know what a self-aware network looks like, what it can do, and what it will cost. This coming year will see operators deciding how to best integrate the technology into their next-generation networks and selecting their preferred equipment for full commercial deployment in 2013. 
        40G reaches mainstream, with 100G close behind
In 2011, 40G deployments continued at a rapid pace with strong demand from China and EMEA. The main driver in China was the need for greater overall Internet speeds, while EMEA’s demand was driven by rising sales of tablets and smartphones. A lot of NEMs are talking about 100G, but 40G is now being deployed all over the world and will continue to play an important role in networks once 100G is readily available. The short-distance market has been figured out and could see initial deployments in late 2012. But the long-haul market is still unclear. 
              Tunable networks now the norm
The entire industry is seeking components that are smaller in size, consume less power, and provide improved functionality, while simultaneously supporting the continued aggressive price reduction trends in the telecommunications equipment market. With this in mind, it is no wonder that the tunable XFP transceiver saw rapid deployment in 2011. At this point, the tunable XFP has all but replaced the 300-pin transponder, and we will see continued growth for the tunable XFP throughout 2012.


  1. Service providers added more new broadband and IPTV subscribers in the third quarter of last year than at any time since early 2009, according to the Broadband Forum. The figures, supplied by market research and analysis firm Point Topic, also show significant gains in FTTH and FTTx
    The Broadband Forum says that approximately 17.4 million lines were added in 3Q11. The new subscriber brought the global total to 581.3 million, a quarterly increase of 3.08% and an annual growth rate of 12.89%.

  2. Dell’Oro: Optical transport sales near $19 billion by 2016.
    Led by the DWDM transport niche, sales of optical transport equipment will approach $19 billion by 2016, according to the new Optical Transport 5-Year Forecast Report from Dell’Oro Group. DWDM sales will increase at a 10% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) over the forecast period to hit $12 billion, according to the market research firm.
    “The demand for optical equipment and DWDM systems is due to what appears to be an endless need for more backhaul capacity in both fixed and mobile broadband networks,” said Jimmy Yu, vice president of optical transport market research at Dell’Oro Group.
    “There are a number of trends we expect to occur in the optical market during the next five years, with the top three being: 1) the shift to packet-based equipment, where we expect optical packet equipment sales to grow three-fold in the next five years; 2) the growing use of OTN, MPLS, and MPLS-TP for both transport and switching, which is related to the rise in optical packet equipment; and 3) the increasing demand for 40-Gbps and 100-Gbps DWDM, which will steadily rise over the next few years to contribute about 60% of the DWDM sales by 2016,” Yu added.