Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Can Apple maintain its lead without its "CVO," or what I like to call "Chief Visionary Officer?"

I think that some of the concern does revolve around Job's departure. Its hard to imagine him giving up the CEO position unless he's pretty sick, and thus unlikely to be involved in a major way going forward.
In the business world it is a common perception that "big companies don't innovate". So what has made Apple an exception? I suspect the answer is that Apple doesn't innovate, it is instead a facility for implementing Job's creativity. This point of view is supported by Job's unparalleled creativity, his obsessive involvement in details, and his autocratic management style. What other tech company has had a CEO with 313 US patents and 80 published patent applications?
A discounted cash flow analysis suggests the market believes that there are two or three years of growth left in Apple that will arise from existing products. Whether this is fair, I can't say.

Thursday, August 25, 2011

AAPL new era after Steve Jobs as CEO

As I updated yesterday blog followers, huge money  flow detected in AAPL   on August 24.

After the market’s close Apple announced executive changes. Tim Cook, formerly Apple’s COO, has been promoted to the CEO position. Apple co-founder and former CEO Steve Jobs has been elected board chair.
The shares swooned on the news in AH trading activity.
Apparently smart money movements during the day were connected to the announcement of executive changes. 
Tim Cook "the ideal candidate" for the role according to Appleinsider, and Cook has been lauded as an  operational genius.

Analyst Maynard Um with UBS remained optimistic about the news. "We expect there to be no transition issues as Cook had been running daily operations as interim-CEO," he said.
He sees Apple's longer-term strategy to be "well laid out" for Cook and the rest of the management team to continue to execute. Um also believes that Apple stock will not fall significantly because of the news, as investors have been anticipating the announcement.
"We would view any weakness as opportunity given our expectation for strong Sept and Dec quarters," he continued. In light of the transition and Apple's hefty cash balance, the analyst called for a share repurchase on the belief that it would be a "positive catalyst."
UBS maintains a Buy rating on Apple, with a 12-month $510 price target.

based on  predictive algorithm using artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning (ML), and incorporating elements of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms - 
issued  negative short term forecast for AAPL  before the announcement of executive changes

J.P. Morgan
Mark Moskowitz with J.P. Morgan described the Apple model as "built to last," reiterating the firm's Overweight rating and December 2012 price target of $525.
"We expect the news to create an attractive entry point for investors looking to add or build bigger positions in Apple. While the news could weigh on shares in the near term, we think the company’s model is built to last, sustaining a “digital way of life” that other industry participants have yet to rival," he said.
According to the analyst, Jobs had a lasting impact on his company that will cement its role in the digital age. "Jobs’ second term as Apple’s CEO drove a stunning recovery and then rise to dominance by constructing a world of mobile devices and content ubiquity."
"We believe that the level of creativity and intelligence assembled throughout the management team and legion of Apple employees can sustain the Apple model and its industry leadership," he continued, adding that he does not expect "too much to change" within the company. "In our view, the far-reaching successes of the iPhone, iPad, iPod, and MacBook Air reflect the work of many, not one."
Moskowitz has a "favorable view" of Cook's ability to lead, citing his proven track record and the integral role he played in "driving the company’s unprecedented revenue and earnings growth phase, limiting disruptions to the operations."
As with Um, the analyst believes Apple's stock has already been "partly discounted" in preparation of a CEO change. He cautioned that the stock will be "under pressure," but does not expect a downdraft.
Morgan Stanley
Analyst Katy Huberty sent a note to investors describing the news as a "well timed and planned leadership transition." She remains "highly confident" in the firm's near-term earnings per share estimates and continues to "rank Apple as best positioned to see upward earnings revision."
The analyst did remark that Jobs is "irreplaceable," while adding that Cook is has a "proven track record of execution." She noted that shares of Apple have generally declined 7 percent after previous health-related announcements from Jobs, before recovering 11 percent, 12 percent and 21 percent over the next 30, 60, and 90 days.
"While this transition is more permanent, it removes the overhang caused by uncertainty around the CEO transition," she added.
The firm reiterated its Overweight rating and $468 price target. She also said her bull case scenario $50 EPS estimate is "still in the cards" for calendar year 2013.

Sunday, August 21, 2011

Stock Market Forecast: Is now the time to load up on dips?

The clouds still cover the Markets.
For the fourth consecutive week,  the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended in the red after another volatile ride.
Another week, another bruising for U.S. stock investors.
In the final two days alone, the Dow dropped 5.2%. On Friday, the index declined 172.93 points, or 1.6%, to 10817.65. It is now down 11% for the month of August and 6.6% for the year.
Friday was a day of relatively few bad-news headlines for U.S. stock investors. But they sold anyway.
Investors' nerves appeared to still be frayed from the relentless patina of gloomy news over the U.S. economy and Europe's debt troubles. The concerns about of the U.S. sliding back into recession gained traction this week as a stream of economic data pointed to signs of slowing activity.

In my opinion we are not sliding into recession and the time to buy on dips is near.
It is in a good agreement with http://iknowfirst.com/
The question is how to make the rights pics?
This week 5 stock pics to load up:  BP,  AMAT, BGC, TNE, WAG.
Good Luck and a Great weekend to all of us!

Monday, August 1, 2011

AAPL: Smartphone sales to cross 1B by 2016

Bright future for Apple
 IMS Research has forecasted that smartphone sales will eclipse 420 million devices in 2011 and will make up about 28 percent of the global handset .  Annual sales are also expected to top one billion devices by the end of 2016 due to the release of more affordable entry-level smartphones, accounting for one of every two mobile handsets sold.
"But despite the higher margins for smartphones, and the seemingly insatiable consumer appetite for converged devices, it is clear that not all OEMs are equally positioned to capitalize on this market trend," said Josh Builta, analyst in IMS' mobile technologies group. "For instance, LG, despite being the third largest OEM in the world, has offered a fairly limited smartphone portfolio in recent years, a factor that resulted in the company reaching less than a three percent share of the total smartphone market in 2010."

In recent years, no company has flourished in this environment as much as Apple .
The company's 2Q11 results in which it reported record sales of more than 
20 million iPhones indicates it can be expected to remain an influential 
presence in the market despite the increased competition.
However, Apple is not alone in its success. Of the traditional handset 

manufacturers, Samsung has demonstrated the best results in recent years. 
Capitalizing on its diverse portfolio that includes devices using the company's
 own bada operating system along with Android and Windows Mobile
 as well as its Galaxy series, Samsung smartphone market share
 increased from about three percent in 1Q10 to over 13 percent in 1Q11. 
Smaller, dedicated smartphone vendors such as HTC have also
 seen their position rise.
"These companies are well positioned to benefit from the projected

 growth of the smartphone market in the future. Though the other
 OEMs are stepping up their efforts in the space, companies such 
as Apple, HTC and Samsung have a considerable amount of momentum. 
Catching them will not be an easy task," Builta noted.